Trade Information - Online Predictions

British Online Shopping to Exceed £10 Billion in 2000
NOP Research Group
Date: 15 February 2000

Online shopping is predicted to exceed £10 billion this year, according to the findings of an NOP survey published today.

The Internet User Profile Survey found that over 3 million of the Web’s regular 12 million users had shopped online in the four weeks before Christmas, a three-fold increase over the same period in 1998. NOP estimates that British consumers spent £3.2 billion online in 1999 and forecasts that online spending in 2000 will easily exceed £10 billion.

The biggest growth category for online sales is groceries, with over 200,000 people doing at least some of their everyday shopping through the Web. Online book buying continues to storm ahead, with the number of Web users buying books increasing by over 50% in 1999. Almost half (49%) of all Web users now buy books online; 31% buy CDs or music.

Richard Jameson, Internet research director at NOP said: "Contrary to some recent speculation, the online shopping experience remains a generally positive one, with shoppers planning significant increases in their spend in 2000. Online grocery shopping is beginning to make its mark and supermarket home delivery vans will become an increasingly common sight."

E-Commerce in Britain to reach £9.5 billion in 2000
NOP Research Group
Date: 30 August 1999

Almost one-and-a-half million adults in Britain used the World Wide Web (WWW) in the four weeks to June 1999 to purchase a product or service, spending some £239 million in the process. This represents an increase of 44 per cent on the number of online shoppers in December 1998 according to the 8th wave of the Internet User Profile Study, published today by the NOP Research Group.

"Our findings show that annual spend via the Internet in Britain is approaching the £3 billion mark this year," says Rob Lawson of NOP, "with current trends suggesting this figure could be as high as £9.5 billion by the end of 2000. More than three quarters of those who are shopping online say that they would expect to be spending at least twice this amount in twelve months time. This demonstrates a growing confidence in the use of the Internet for shopping as an increasing proportion of users become more familiar and comfortable with the process of undertaking online transactions."

Areas which saw notable upturns compared with December 1998 included music and CDs, leisure travel and clothes.

One of the main areas of change during the past 12 months has been in the method of payment for purchases online, with a significant upturn in the proportion of shoppers prepared to disclose their credit card details online. In addition, eight out of ten (79 per cent) of those who now shop online disclose credit card details, compared with just over four out of ten (42 per cent) 12 months earlier.

Amongst all users of the Internet, nearly a quarter (23 per cent) said that they had disclosed their credit card details at some stage, more than twice the proportion twelve months previously. Interestingly, amongst those who had not disclosed credit card details online, 27 per cent said that they would consider disclosing details in the future on the Internet, compared with only 18 per cent in June 1998.

"Although it is still a minority of Internet users who are disclosing their credit card details online, this is the first time in four years that we have seen a softening in attitudes amongst those who have yet to release their details," continues Lawson. "People are increasingly conscious that this is something they will be doing in the future."

Other key findings include: One in five (21 per cent) of people who used the Internet during the six months to June 1999 used it for home shopping, a significant increase from just eight per cent in the six months to June 1998 Almost one in ten Internet users say they already have Digital TV. A further third (34 per cent) say they are ‘certain’ or ‘likely’ to get Digital TV in the next 12 months

"The Internet is attracting over 11,000 new adult users in Britain every day," continues Rob Lawson, "with some 12.69 million adults having accessed the Internet at least once in the twelve months to June 1999. This represents a 46 per cent increase compared with a similar period to June 1998. We are also seeing a significant proportion of the Internet population adopting – or likely to adopt – Digital TV within 12 months and as this evolves into true Interactive TV, it will offer an alternative means of Internet access for current users, as well as expanding the overall online population in Britain."

This latest research was undertaken by screening 20,284 adults in Great Britain using NOP’s three Omnibus surveys and following up with telephone interviews between 1 June and 1 July 1999 amongst a representative sample of 1,016 Internet users aged 15 years and over.


More than 10,000 new users try the Internet each day in Britain - Survey findings
NOP Research Group
Date: March 1999

The Internet is attracting 10,900 new adult users in Britain every day, according to research published today by the NOP Research Group as part of its regular Internet User Profile Study.

The research also shows that some 10.6 million adults accessed the Internet at least once during 1998, a 48 per cent increase compared with 1997 when the figure stood at just over 7 million.

"These findings suggest that Internet usage in Britain has undergone spectacular growth in recent months," says NOP. s Rob Lawson. "One of the principal factors explaining this was the introduction, by Dixons, of Freeserve in the last quarter of 1998 which has given the Company somewhere in the region of one fifth of the market overnight. However, even removing this from the equation, overall growth was still strong during the six months to December 1998."

Perhaps most significantly, the free service providers are also attracting a new type of Internet user - generally older and from the C2DE social groups - where previously, users had been from predominantly younger age groups and ABC1 social groups."

The location of Internet usage has shifted significantly during the past year. By December 1998, some 6 million people had used the Internet from home compared with only 3.4 million by December 1997, an increase of 76 per cent. In contrast, the proportion of those accessing the Internet from work increased by only 54 per cent over the same period, from 3.5 million to 5.3 million people.

Web usage increased considerably during the six months to December 1998, with almost three quarters (73 per cent) of Internet users saying they had used the World Wide Web (WWW) during the previous four weeks. This compares with just 60 per cent in the six months to June 1998.

Usage of the Web is also starting to demonstrate seasonal patterns. The Web was used, on average, almost seven times by each user during the previous four weeks in both December 1997 and 1998, compared with only just over five times in both June 1997 and June 1998. This suggests that the winter months are proving more popular for accessing the Web than the summer ones.

The Web is increasingly being seen as a means of accessing information for a wide range of purposes. For example, in the past four weeks, some 1.2 million people have used the WWW to search for a job or employment and more than 1.9 million people have used it to look for travel information over the same time period. Other purposes include:

- Searching for information on a particular company 2.9 million

- Reading newspapers online 1.9 million

- Searching for financial information 1.3 million

Most importantly, perhaps, the findings reveal that 1.3 million users shopped online in the second half of 1998, making a total of some 4.8 million purchases and spending £470 million between them.

"With users becoming more familiar with the Web as a primary source of information," NOP. s Rob Lawson continues, "their confidence in using it for an increasingly complex range of activities is also growing. Internet usage in Britain will clearly be a mass market activity by the beginning of the millennium as a growing number of people are becoming familiar with the medium via locations other than the workplace."

This latest research was undertaken by screening 21,000 households in Great Britain and following up with telephone interviews in December 1998 amongst a representative sample of 1,000 Internet users aged 15 years and over.

Online shopping becoming significant, says survey
NOP Research Group
Date: 12 March 1997

The number of World Wide Web (WWW) users in Britain shopping on-line increased by over 100 per cent during the six-month period between June and December 1996, according to NOP Research Group's most recent Internet User Profile Study which is published today. Over a quarter of a million people are now shopping on-line each month.

In addition, the proportion of current users who said that they would consider shopping on-line during the next six months increased by 69 per cent over the same period.

Of those making purchases during the past four weeks, three out of five spent less than 50.00 whilst one in seven spent more than 500.00. The findings suggest that on-line shopping transactions totalling in excess of 1 billion will take place during 1997 (given current levels of expenditure).

The most popular types of purchases were computer hardware (27 per cent) and software (23 per cent) products, which were made predominantly by business users. However, respondents had also used the WWW to purchase books, CDs, travel tickets and holidays. In addition, just over a third (36 per cent) of all WWW users said they would consider purchasing banking and financial services on-line during the next six months.

Key findings of the research are:

Some 11 per cent of WWW users said they had shopped on-line in the last four weeks.

Some 22 per cent of all Internet users said they would consider on-line shopping in the next six months.

Of those saying they would consider shopping on-line in the next six months, two out of five are home users (who would be expected to provide the greater volume of sales) while the remaining

60 per cent are business users who tend to spend more per item (all respondents who spend 1,000 or more a month are business users).

One in ten Internet users have now disclosed their credit card details on the Internet compared with just one in 25 a year ago.

Over the past six months the proportion of users sourcing travel information has increased from 16 per cent to 23 per cent of all Internet users while those using the medium to find holiday information has increased from 13 per cent to 18 per cent.

The number of current WWW users in Britain increased from just over one million to almost two-and-a-half million between December 1995 and December 1996.

The number of people who have tried the Internet in Britain increased from 2.7 million in December 1995 to 4.6 million in December 1996.

The findings indicate that approximately ten per cent of people in Britain have now tried the Internet.

Future intention to use the Internet is highest amongst 15-24 year olds, who constitute almost 40 per cent of all users. Around two thirds of users in the workplace are from large businesses (65 per cent are from firms with 200 or more employees), although small firms are beginning to emerge strongly. The number of users among firms with fewer than 50 employees has more than doubled during the twelve months to the end of December 1996 and now account for just over a quarter of all Internet users in the workplace.

No single reason for purchasing products and services on-line dominated, with respondents attaching relatively equal weight to factors such as ease of use, convenience, cost and availability of information on-line compared with other sources.

"The findings suggest that a small but growing number of Web users - at work and, increasingly, at home - are beginning to realise the potential of the World Wide Web as an important medium for the purchase of products and services," says NOP's Richard Jameson. "It seems likely that the World Wide Web will offer businesses considerable scope for sales opportunities in the future as users become more familiar with procedures and less concerned about the security implications of shopping via the Internet."

This latest research was undertaken, by telephone, in December 1996 amongst a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Internet users aged 15 years and over in Great Britain.